With the 2023-24 NBA season coming down to the wire, speculation on who will hoist the highly coveted Most Valuable Player award is beginning to heat up. Some years, the award race is all but wrapped by the end of March, but this season the last stretch of the season is going to play a vital role in deciding the victor.
The MVP (and all other awards for the NBA) are voted on by a panel of 100 writers and broadcasters. They each rank their top five MVP candidates and points are given to each candidate depending on their ranking.
I will be following this structure by picking the top five most deserving athletes to win the prestigious MVP award at this point in time. I will also include three honorable mentions who are worth mentioning even though they are not frontrunners in the race. Of course, this is a dynamic ranking as it is possible for one of these already elite talents to take their game to a whole other level to really pull ahead of the competition.
Honorable Mention: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
2023-2024 Stats: 26.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.2 APG, 46.3 FG%, 36.7 3PT%
Anthony Edwards has shown elite potential ever since his rookie season but this season it seems he is starting to enter that “superstar” category. He has showcased tremendous athleticism, scoring ability and leadership this season, while simultaneously leading one of the surprise success stories this season with the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are currently the 3 seed in the West and seem to be a shoe-in for a playoff spot in a highly competitive Western Conference. Even with the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns due to a torn meniscus, forcing him to miss extensive time, Minnesota has not skipped a beat thanks to Edwards elite presence on both sides of the ball.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
2023-2024 Stats: 27.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.2 APG, 47.9 FG%, 40.1 3PT%
Jalen Brunson revived New York basketball ever since arriving in the Big Apple. He led the Knicks to the second round a season ago and has only continued to improve. Despite the team’s injury woes, the Villanova alum has been able to stay on the court and perform at a high-level. There have been stretches where Brunson has looked like the best point guard in the entire league and has really elevated this Knicks franchise to new heights. He has also shown to be reliable in late game situations which will make a healthy Knicks team dangerous for any opposing team in the playoffs.
Honorable Mention: Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
2023-2024 Stats: 19.6 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 8.3 APG, 60.3 FG%, 40.3 3PT%
While the Kings have slightly regressed since a season ago, that is not because of what Domantas Sabonis has done on the court. He is averaging career highs in both rebounds and assists while averaging just under 20 PPG. Similar to Jokic, Sabonis is a big man that you simply can not game plan against as he can bully interior defenders, but has the passing ability and ball vision to get the ball to whoever he wants to. Some people like to refer to him as “Jokic Lite ” which in a sense is not far off. However, the term “lite” makes it seem he is not as impactful of a player as he currently is.
5. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
2023-2024 Stats: 27.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 47.2 FG%, 37.8 3PT%
Jayson Tatum is the best player on the best team in the league. That fact alone will put him in the MVP race, especially when the Celtic’s certainly have a shot to finish with 65 wins or more this season. Everyone knows how good Tatum is, a great scorer, rebounder and defender. However, this season Tatum seemed to have improved even more as a playmaker as well. While his assist numbers are not anything to write home about, he displays exceptional court vision with the ball in his hands.
The knock against Jayson Tatum is that he has a stacked roster accompanying him. While Tatum is certainly talented enough to average over 30 points and 7 assists a game, the team is able to knock back his usage with guys like Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White. This also means that the Celtics are still able to win games when Tatum is having an off night or doesn’t play at all. Boston is 12-5 this season in games Tatum either did not play or scored 20 or less points. While I believe Tatum is certainly capable of carrying a team to a high seed, he is not required to do that while other MVP candidates are, while also putting up better numbers on the season.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2023-2024 Stats: 30.7 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 6.4 APG, 61.6 FG%, 28.8 3PT%
With the exception of LeBron James and Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most recognizable names in all of basketball and rightfully so. At just 29 years old, Antetokounmpo has already strung together a Hall of Fame worthy resume with two MVPs, seven All-NBA selections, a Defensive Player of the Year Award and an NBA Championship. It is not surprising to see the decorated superstar being in the MVP race. Giannis is putting up Giannis numbers, however he is also averaging over six assists for the first time in his career. With the addition of Damian Lillard, the Bucks spacing has improved. Giannis is able to get to the basket with ease, but is a very underrated passer and will get the ball to the open shooter if another defender leaves their man to crash the paint. The biggest flaw of Giannis’s game is his inconsistent shooting, however this has been an issue for him his entire career yet he is still able to dominate every game he steps on the hardwood.
While Giannis certainly deserves a nod in the conversation, he most likely will not be winning the MVP honors this year. He is having another incredible year, however, there are other players that are outperforming him. Not only that, but the Bucks have been slightly underperforming their expectations for this season. I know it sounds crazy to use the term “underperforming” to describe the 2nd place team in the East, but they were considered to be title favorites and are 11 games back of the Boston Celtics. While Milwaukee’s lackluster defense is the biggest factor in the deficit, the fact of the matter is it is not likely for the Most Valuable Player to come from a team that has not quite lived up to the hype in the regular season. Yes, the Bucks are still contenders to represent the East in the Finals, as they have the star talent to get there, however playoff success does not factor in the MVP race.
3. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
2023-2024 Stats: 33.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 9.8 APG, 48.7 FG%, 37.6 3PT%
Luka Doncic is the best offensive player in the league this season and also is putting up the best stat line. Not only is he leading the NBA in points per game, he also plays a pivotal factor on the boards and with his passing ability. There might not be another player that is more valuable to their team than Luka Doncic.
So that brings up the question “How isn’t Luka the frontrunner to win MVP?” Well, while Luka is balling out, the Mavericks are currently only sixth place in the West. It is very rare for an MVP winner to be a member of a team outside a three seed in the conference. In fact, the only time this century a seed lower than three won an MVP was Russell Westbrook in 2017 when he averaged a triple double in an entire season for the first time since Oscar Robertson. The MVP is an award that is made to go to one of the best players on one of the top teams and the Dallas Mavericks just have not been good enough this season for Luka to get the edge over the top two contenders.
2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
2023-2024 Stats: 26.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 8.9 APG, 57.9 FG%, 34.5 3PT%
Nikola Jokic is once again doing Nikola Jokic things this season. The Nuggets currently hold a half game lead in the monstrous Western Conference largely due to the presence of Nikola Jokic. It is no mystery how good Jokic truly is as he already won two MVPs and is a serious contender for a third. Not only does he dominate the post but he also might be the best playmaker in the entire NBA as a center. He also has made huge strides in his game defensively and while he is not among the elite rim protectors, he certainly is not a liability to have in the paint on defense.
In most seasons, Jokic would be a runaway favorite to win the MVP. He has stats, team record and analytics all backing his numbers up. However, this season the race looks like it will be coming down to two players. The difference between the top two candidates are miniscule and arguments can be made for both of them. The final few games of the season are going to be pivotal. If Jokic starts to go on a tear, he may pull away as the clear MVP favorite. However, at this very moment Nikola Jokic falls just short.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
2023-2024 Stats: 30.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 6.3 APG, 54.0 FG%, 36.7 3PT%
After breaking out last season by earning First Team All-Star Odds, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showed he was no fluke as he is putting up another monumental season. He is averaging over 30 points per game on insane efficiency. He is often criticized for baiting for fouls, however he has one of the deadliest mid range shots in the entire league as well. What really put Shai on the map for the award is the success of the Oklahoma City Thunder this season. While he certainly has a great squad surrounding him, Gilgeous-Alexander was the one who had to emerge as a leader of this very young squad in order for this team to flourish and he has done just that.
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does not have the rebound or assist numbers of Jokic, he certainly is solid at both of those aspects of the game. Also, the Canadian guard makes up for it with both his ball security and his defense. Shai leads the entire league in steals and is also a serious contender for an All-Defensive Team selection. He is a guard that can cover 4 positions on the court and cover them all well. In terms of ball security, Gilgeous-Alexander is only averaging 2.2 turnovers per game despite ranking 3rd in the league in usage percentage. While I think looking at turnovers per game can be a little misleading as many stars usually lead the statistics due to higher usage percentages, I do think there is some value in having a high usage percentage with a low turnover rate. With 2.1 steals and 2.2 turnovers per game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander generates almost the same amount of turnovers he does defensively as he does offensively.
However, the reason why Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP for me is not really anything that can be proven. When it comes to numbers SGA and Jokic, they are neck and neck. However, in a scenario down by one time expiring and you need to get a shot off, the guy I am trusting with the ball is Shai. While Jokic certainly has shown he can contribute to clutch moments, if you need to run an isolation and do not have enough time to draw up a play, I want Shai to get the ball because I believe in that scenario he would truly be dangerous from anywhere on the court.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander truly has emerged in this league as a superstar and could certainly become the Most Valuable Player of the league for this year. The end of the season will be very intriguing to see how all five of these guys can finish off the year. Will the MVP go to the best player on the best team in Tatum? Will Giannis be able to finish strong and get the nod? Can Luka force voters to overlook his teams record by going on a monumental tear? Will one of Shai Gligeous-Alexander or Nikola Jokic pull away in a tight race to the hardware? We will know the answers to all these questions very soon.
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